Investing Talk #16: Bull and Bear
The bull and bear periods in stock market history represent sustained periods of rising (bull) or falling (bear) stock prices. Here's an overview of the most significant bull and bear markets in U.S. stock market history, focusing mainly on the S&P 500, the most commonly used benchmark:
Major Bull Markets in History
| Start Date | End Date | Duration | Total Gain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1942 | May 1946 | 4 years, 1 mo | +158% |
| Oct 1974 | Nov 1980 | 6 years, 1 mo | +126% |
| Aug 1982 | Mar 2000 | 17 years, 7 mo | +1,500%+ |
| Mar 2009 | Feb 2020 | 10 years, 11 mo | +400%+ |
| Mar 2020 | Jan 2022 | 1 year, 10 mo | +114% |
| Oct 2022 | Present | Ongoing | +45%+ (as of Aug 2025) |
Longest bull market ever: 1982–2000, fueled by economic expansion, falling interest rates, and the tech boom.
Strongest short-term bull: 2020–2022, after the COVID-19 crash, driven by stimulus, low rates, and tech gains.
Major Bear Markets in History
| Start Date | End Date | Duration | Total Loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1929 | Jun 1932 | 2 years, 9 mo | -86% |
| Jan 1973 | Oct 1974 | 1 year, 9 mo | -48% |
| Mar 2000 | Oct 2002 | 2 years, 7 mo | -49% |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2009 | 1 year, 5 mo | -57% |
| Feb 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 month | -34% |
| Jan 2022 | Oct 2022 | 9 months | -25% |
Worst bear market: 1929–1932, during the Great Depression.
Fastest bear: COVID-19 crash (2020), where the S&P 500 lost 34% in just 33 days.
Bull & Bear Cycle Context
- A bull market is typically defined as a rise of 20% or more from a recent low.
- A bear market is a fall of 20% or more from a recent high.
- Bull markets tend to last longer and gain more than bear markets lose.
Historical Trends (S&P 500 since 1928)
- Average bull market length: ~5 years
- Average bull market gain: +170%
- Average bear market length: ~1 year
- Average bear market loss: -35%